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August 20th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on August 20, 2015

9:00 pm EST:   With the break of the SPX 2044 level today, the primary (white/green) count is right on track looking for PA-C2 low around 1986 to 1954 in the coming weeks.  As has been shown here for better than a month, there is rounded to pattern on the SP-500 with a target at 1953 [2044 – (2044-2135)].  After PA-C2 completes around 1954 and a PB-C2 bounce to 50% retrace at the 2046 pivot, ultimately PC-C2 should reach the 1575 pivot area (year 2007 old ATH) in mid-to-late year 2016.

However with the 2044 level break today, the alternate (blue) count P5-C1 ending diagonal was invalidated and has been replaced with a new alternate (blue) that is ultimately more bullish than the original alternate (blue), which is looking for P4-C1 low here at 2021 to 1986 and then P5-C1 high at 2335 (or higher) going into the year 2016.   Note the white channel on the weekly chart, which I have had in place for better than 1 year, has a lower trend-line around the 2019 pivot over the next few days.

The count probability is about 50/50, with some valid reasons (i.e. heavy investor cash positions and high bearish sentiment) why we might see a P4-C1 low per the alternate (blue) play out and a strong rally to new all-time highs in P5-C1.

The wave count details are shown on the 15-min and 60-min charts below.

Have a great weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 8-20-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 8-20-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 8-20-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 dailly EOD 8-20-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 8-20-15

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