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August 17th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on August 17, 2015

2:15 pm EST:   The SP-500 broke above 2093 today and opens the door for a re-test or move above the All-Time High of 2135.  We’ll keep the count discussion at the higher level 4-hr and daily charts today.   The count probabilities are about 60/40, primary/alt(blue).

The primary (white/green) count is that wave minor 2 of major [3]-PA-C2 is underway as an expanded flat that will target the 88% retrace target of 2122.   Once minor 2 complete, wave minor 3 of major [3] should head toward 2009, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 and major [3]=1.62*[1] at 1986.   Ultimately PA-C2 should reach at least 1954 (62% retrace of the P5-C1 Ending Diagonal) and maybe 1889 (78% retrace of the P5-C1 Ending Diagonal).  The primary count remains valid for minor 2 wave below 2133.

The alternate (blue) count is that the Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) Ending Diagonal (ED) is extending from the recent major [4]-P5-C1 low of 2044.   The final wave up for major [5]-P5 is underway and should unfold at a 3-wave, minor A-B-C.  Wave minor A reached the 2135 pivot (2133) and the minor B wave retraced 88% to 2052.  Minor C is now underway and should complete major [5]-P5-C1 near the P5 = 0.5*P1 target of 2172.  There are three potential wave C targers at 2141, where C=A, 2161, where C=1.23A and 2196, where C=1.62A.  Note: the ending diagonal maximum (i.e. wave [5] < [3] < [1]) for this primary wave count is at 2044 + (2135-1981) = 2198.  The alternate (blue) counts remain valid above 2052 and then the recent major [4]-P5-C1 2044 low.   It will take a break of the 2046 pivot area to confirm the Cycle 1 (C1) top is in place per the primary count.

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 8-17-15

 

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 8-17-15

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