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August 12th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on August 12, 2015

5:30 pm EST:   Today the SP-500 gapped down from 2084 to put in a new low at 2052, but reversed and closed up at 2086 putting in a potentially bullish daily hammer candle above the 200-day SMA of 2075.  The SP-500 will need remain below 2105 in the near-term and then reverse lower breaking 2044 to keep the major [3]-PA-C2 primary wave down count in place as the most likely scenario.  A move above 2105 and the primary count will need to be modified to be shown as major [2]-PA-C2 wave up still ongoing and also to be supplemented by a more bullish alternate (blue) count looking for a move above 2135 to at least 2172 and possibility much higher to complete Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1).   For now we’ll keep the focus on the primary count that we been tracking the past few weeks.

The primary (white/green) count is that wave minor 3 of major [3]-PA-C2 is underway with minor 2 of major [3] complete at 2114.   Wave minor 3 of major [3] should be headed below 2000, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 at 2002 and major [3]=1.62*[1] at 1986.   Within minor 3, wave (1) ended at 2068, wave (2) retraced 78% to 2105 and now wave (3) is underway headed to 2013, where (3)=2.00*(1) (see the 15-min and 60-min chart for details).   Ultimately PA-C2 should reach at least 1954 (62% retrace of the P5-C1 Ending Diagonal) and maybe 1889 (78% retrace of the P5-C1 Ending Diagonal).  The primary count remains valid for minor 2 wave below 2133.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 8-12-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 8-12-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 8-12-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 Daily EOD 8-12-15

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