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July 28th, 2015: SP-500 Mid-day/EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on July 28, 2015

2:35 pm EST:  Today’s strong rebound to SPX 2096 (thus far) improved the near-term bullish primary count probability from 50% to 60%, with the very bearish alternate (red) count dropping back from 45% to 35%.  The very bullish alternate (blue) still only at 5% likely.

The primary (white) count is that the Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) Ending Diagonal (ED) is extending from the recent major [4]-P5-C1 low of 2044.   The final wave up for major [5]-P5 is underway and should unfold at a 3-wave, minor A-B-C.  Wave minor A reached the 2135 pivot and we just completed a minor B retrace of 78% 2063.  Minor C is now underway and should complete major [5]-P5-C1 near the P5 = 0.5*P1 target of 2172.  Note: the ending diagonal maximum (i.e. wave [5] < [3] < [1]) for this primary wave count is at 2044 + (2135-1981) = 2198.  Above 2198, very bullish the alternate (blue) count is confirmed.

The alternate (blue) count is that P4-C1 played out as shallow flat over the past 4-months.  P4-C1 ended at 2044 and P5-C1 is now underway that should reach at least the P5 = 0.5*P1 target of 2374 and could reach much higher to P5 = 0.62*P1 = 2481 or P5 = 2749 over the next year.   Major [1]-P5 reached the 2135 pivot and major [2]-P5 retraced 78% to 2063.  Major [3] is now underway and should target 2272, where major [3]=1.62*[1].  Ultimately P5-C1 could reach as high as 2374, where P5 = 0.5*P1.

Both the primary and alternate (blue) counts remain valid above the recent 2044 low.  It will take a break of the 2046 pivot area to confirm the Cycle 1 (C1) top is in place [see the alternate (red) label at 2135 May high] and the Cycle 2 (C2) correction is underway.  For the alternate (red) count wave major [3]-PA-C2 is underway with minor 1 of major [3]  complete at 2063.   The minor 2 bounce to a 50%/62% retrace of 2099/2108 is underway.   Once minor 2 ends, then minor 3 of major [3] will head below 2000, where major [3]=1.62*[1] at 1986.   Ultimately PA-C2 should reach at least 1954 (62% retrace of the P5-C1 Ending Diagonal) and maybe 1887 (78% retrace of the P5-C1 Ending Diagonal).

SP-500 15-min chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart MD 7-28-15

SP-500 60-min chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart MD 7-28-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart MD 7-28-15

SP-500 daily chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 daily chart MD 7-28-15

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