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July 21st, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on July 21, 2015

5:30 pm EST:    Today’s price action decline from SPX 2133 to 2115 looks to have confirmed 2133 as the local top for both wave counts that I’ve been expecting at the 2135 target.

The primary count is that the Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) Ending Diagonal (ED) is extending from the recent major [4]-P5-C1 low of 2044.   The final wave up for major [5]-P5 is underway and should unfold at a 3-wave, minor A-B-C.  Wave minor A reached the 2135 pivot and now we should see a minor B wave 50% retrace the 2094 pivot area.  Once minor B completes, minor C should then complete major [5]-P5-C1 near the P5 = 0.5*P1 target of 2172.  Note: the ending diagonal maximum (i.e. wave [5] < [3] < [1]) for this primary wave count is at 2044 + (2135-1981) = 2198.  Above 2198, the alternate (blue) count is confirmed.

The alternate (blue) count is that P4-C1 played out as shallow flat over the past 4-months.  P4-C1 ended at 2044 and P5-C1 is now underway that should reach at least the P5 = 0.5*P1 target of 2374 and could reach much higher to P5 = 0.62*P1 = 2481 or P5 = 2749 over the next year.   Major [1]-P5 reached the 2135 pivot and now we should see a major [2]-P5 retrace of 50% to the 2094 pivot area.  Once minor [2] completes, major [3] should target 2272, where major [3]=1.62*[1].

Both the primary and alternate (blue) counts remain valid above the recent 2044 low.  It would take a break of the 2046 pivot area to likely confirm the Cycle 1 (C1) top is in place and the Cycle 2 (C2) correction is underway.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 7-21-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 7-21-15

SP-500 4-hr chart(EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 7-21-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 7-21-15

 

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