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June 30th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on June 30, 2015

4:50 pm EST:    The VIX Sell, SPX Buy step 2 did not confirm today as the VIX remained above its upper BB (see chart link below).  The VIX Sell, SPX Buy signal remains at step 1.  The SPX did close back inside its lower BB confirming its step2, but this is a weaker SPX Buy signal that either the VIX or $NYMO.  The $NYMO did close green today, setting up the potential +div with the early May low.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p88512801943&a=269536931&r=1410958141020&cmd=print

The primary count is that major [2]-PA-C2 completed at 2130 just above the 88% retrace target of 2127.  Wave major [3] down is underway and the major [3] target is at [3]=2.62*[1] = 1964 target.  Within wave major [3], minor 1 may have bottomed today at 2056 or could be headed for the 2046 pivot area before a wave minor 2 bounce to 2094 pivot area and then a minor 3 of major [3] drop to the 1956 pivot, where mirror 3 = 1.62*minor 1.   Ultimately PA-C2 should test the 1926 pivot to 1884 pivot area, which is a 62%/78% retrace of the P5-C1 Ending Diagonal (ED).  The primary count remains valid for major [2] below the P5-C1 high of 2135.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [4]-P5-C1 is playing out as a 3-wave, minor A-B-C correction from the 2135 major [3]-P5-C1 high.  For major [4], the minor C = 1.23*A target is at 2053, which was nearly hit at today’s low of 2056.  Once major [4] completes, there should be one more move higher than SPX 2135 to complete major [5]-P5-C1, where P5 = 0.5*P1 = 2172.   Basis a major [4] low of 2053, the Ending Diagonal (ED) maximum is 2053 + (2134-1981) = 2207 (as for an ED wave [5] < [3] < [1]).  The alternate (blue) remains valid the major [2] low of 1981.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart 6-30-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart 6-30-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart 6-30-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

SP-500 daily chart 6-30-15

 

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