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May 6th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on May 6, 2015

6:35 pm EST:    Today the SP-500 price dropped below the first critical support at 2072, but bounced at 2068 and closed at 2080.  The final critical support for the P5-C1 Ending Diagonal pattern at 2040/2046 is still intact, meaning that the P5-C1 top at 2126 can’t be 100% confirmed just yet.  There is still the potential for move above 2126 to complete wave major [5]-P5-C1 near the P5 = 0.5*P1 = 2172 target.

The primary count is that P5-C1 topped at 2126 and Cycle 2 (C2) lower is underway.  Wave minor 1 of major [1]-PA-C2 completed at 2078, wave minor 2 ended at 2121 at the 88% retrace and now wave minor 3 should be underway headed for the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 = 2043 target.   Major [1]-PA should reach the 2019 pivot by late May.  This primary count is invalid above 2126.  The Cycle 2 (C2) wave is likely headed for the 50% Fibonacci retrace area of 1419 over the next year.  The first Primary A (PA ) wave of C2 is likely to reach the 1814 pivot area (-15% correction) by the fall of 2015.
The alternate (blue) count is that the move up from 2046 to 2126 was only minor A of major [5]-P5-C1 and that this move down to 2068 is minor B of major [5]-P5.   Thus, minor C up should now be underway with a target of 2148, where C=A to complete major [5]-P5-C1.   Note that the Primary 5 (P5) ED maximum is 2185=(2046 + (2120-1981)), as the requirement for an ED wave is [5] < [3] < [1].

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 5-6-16

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 5-6-16

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 5-6-16

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 5-6-16


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