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April 3rd, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on April 3, 2015

3:45 pm EST:   With last week’s large move down from 2115 to 2046 and the break down of the lower yellow trend-line of the 6-month bearish rising wedge pattern and this week’s weak rebound and close below the lower yellow trend-line, the red count version of the primary count major [5]-P5-C1 Ending Diagonal (ED) pattern gained momentum and probability.  A break of the 2040 low will make the red count version the primary wave count and mean that the P5-C1 top is likely in place at 2115 (see the red count labels for how PA-C2 will likely unfold).  A move to the double top target of 1967 for major [1]-PA-C2 is likely on a break of 2040.

The primary count is that minor B of major [5]-P5-C1 of a large P5 Ending Diagonal (ED) completed at 2046.  There should now be a minor C wave of major [5]-P5 to make a new high above 2120.  From 2046 the C=A target would be 2121 and the C=1.62 target is 2168.   The major [5]-P5 wave up must complete with major [5] < [3], which is 139 points above the major [4] low or 2040 + 139 = 2179.  The P5 = 0.5*P1 target is at 2172.

It is also primary count variant (see red count labels) that the move up from 2040 to 2115 completed minor C of major [5]-P5-C1 and this means the major [5] wave truncated just 5 points short of the 2120 high.  Minor 1 of major [1]-PA-C2 ended at 2046 and the move up to 2088 was minor 2 ended at the 62% retrace.  Wave minor 3 is underway from 2088 with a target of 1977, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.   Within minor 3 wave, currently we are in a wave (3) head lower with target of 2006, where (3)=1.62*(1).   The major [1] target is 1967, which is also the double top (2115) target.

In either case, Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V of the 6 year, cyclical bull market has ended or will be ending in the next few weeks and a significant SP-500 correction for Cycle 2 (C2) is underway headed for the 50%/62% Fibonacci retrace area of 1391/1217 over the next year.  The Cycle 1 top would be likely on a break below 2040 and confirmed on a break of the 1981 low.  Below the 1981 level, the Cycle 2 (C2) correction of 50%/62% down to 1391/1217 is underway.   The first Primary A (PA ) wave of C2 is likely to reach the 1730 pivot area.

Have a wonderful Easter Holiday weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD. 4-2-15):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 4-2-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD, 4-2-15):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 4-2-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD, 4-2-15):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 4-2-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD, 4-2-15):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 4-2-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD. 4-2-15):

PUG SP-500 weekly chart EOD 4-2-15

SP-500 weekly chart with indicators (EOD, 3-25-15):

PUG SP-500 weekly with indicators 3-25-15

 

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