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April 1st, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on March 30, 2015

5:25 pm EST:   With last week’s large move down to 2046 and the break down of the lower yellow trend-line of the 6-month bearish rising wedge pattern, the red count version of the primary count major [5]-P5-C1 Ending Diagonal (ED) pattern gained momentum and probability.  A break of the 2040 low will make the red count version the primary wave count and mean that the P5-C1 top is likely in place at 2115 (see the red count labels for how PA-C2 will likely unfold).  A move to the double top target of 1967 for major [1]-PA-C2 is likely on a break of 2040.

The primary count is that minor B of major [5]-P5-C1 of a large P5 Ending Diagonal (ED) completed at 2046.  There should now be a minor C wave of major [5]-P5 to make a new high above 2120.  From 2046 the C=A target would be 2121 and the C=1.62 target is 2168.   The major [5]-P5 wave up must complete with major [5] < [3], which is 139 points above the major [4] low or 2040 + 139 = 2179.  The P5 = 0.5*P1 target is at 2172.   It is also possible (see red count labels) that the move up from 2040 to 2115 completed minor C of major [5]-P5-C1 and this means the major [5] wave truncated just 5 points short of the 2120 high.  Minor 1 of major [1]-PA-C2 ended at 2046 and this move up to 2088 is minor 2 that could have ended at the 62% retrace or will reach the 78%/88% retrace of 2100/2107.  Once minor 2 completes, there should a large move lower in minor 3 to well below 2000.  The major [1] target is 1967, which is also the double top (2115) target.   In either case, Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V of the 6 year, cyclical bull market has ended or will be ending in the next few weeks and a significant SP-500 correction for Cycle 2 (C2) is underway headed for the 50%/62% Fibonacci retrace area of 1391/1217 over the next year.

The primary count ED would go invalid on a move above 2179 giving way to the much more intermediate term bullish alternate (blue) wave count.   The alternate (blue) is that a wave (3) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 impulse wave is underway that will take the SP-500 much higher.   The wave (3) of minor 3 has a target of 2265, where (3) = 1.62*(1).   Within wave (3), wave i-(3) completed at 2115, wave ii-(3) is now underway with a 78%/88% retrace target of 2057/2049 and wave iii-(3) should reach the Fibonacci extension of iii = 1.62*i = 2200.  The wave minor 3 target is 2298, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 and major [3] target is 2393, where major [3] = 1.62*[1].  This alternate (blue) count is considerably more bullish than the primary count and would mean that the SP-500 could reach the P5 = P1 target of 2524 over the next year.  Like the primary wave count, the alternate (blue) count remains valid above the low of 1981.  The Cycle 1 top would be likely on a break below 2040 and confirmed on a break of the 1981 low.  Below the 1981 level, the Cycle 2 (C2) correction of 50%/62% down to 1391/1217 is underway.   The first Primary A (PA ) wave of C2 is likely to reach the 1730 pivot area.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD, 3-30-15):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 3-30-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD), 3-30-15):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 3-30-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD, 3-30-15):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 3-30-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD, 3-30-15):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 3-30-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD, 3-25-15):

PUG SP-500 weekly with indicators 3-25-15

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