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March 25th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on March 25, 2015

5:05 pm EST:  With today’s large move down to 2061 and the break of the 2079 pivot, the red count version of the primary count major [5]-P5-C1 Ending Diagonal (ED) pattern gained momentum and probability.  A break of the 2040 low will make the red count version the primary wave count and mean that the P5-C1 top is likely in place at 2115 (see the red count labels for how PA-C2 will likely unfold).  A move to the double top target of 1967 for major [1]-PA-C2 is likely on a break of 2040.

The primary count is that minor A of major [5]-P5-C1 of a large P5 Ending Diagonal (ED) completed at 2115.  There should now be a 78%/88% Fibonacci retracement (2057/2049) for minor B of major [5].   Once minor B completes, minor C of major [5] should make a new high above 2120.  Assuming minor B reaches 2057, then the C=A target would be 2132.   The major [5]-P5 wave up is underway and must complete with major [5] < [3], which is 139 points above the major [4] low or 2040 + 139 = 2179.  The P5 = 0.5*P1 target is at 2172.   It is also possible (see red count labels) that the move up from the major [4] low of 2040 to 2081 was all of minor A, the move down from 2081 to 2061 was minor B and now this move up from 2061 to 2115 was minor C to complete major [5]-P5-C that truncated just 5 points short of the 2120 high.   In either case, Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V of the 6+ year, cyclical bull market is likely coming to end during this week to about month (end of April). 

The primary count ED would go invalid on a move above 2179 giving way to the much more intermediate term bullish alternate (blue) wave count.   The alternate (blue) is that a wave (3) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 impulse wave is underway that will take the SP-500 much higher.   The wave (3) of minor 3 has a target of 2265, where (3) = 1.62*(1).   Within wave (3), wave i-(3) completed at 2115, wave ii-(3) is now underway with a 78%/88% retrace target of 2057/2049 and wave iii-(3) should reach the Fibonacci extension of iii = 1.62*i = 2200.  The wave minor 3 target is 2298, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 and major [3] target is 2393, where major [3] = 1.62*[1].  This alternate (blue) count is considerably more bullish than the primary count and would mean that the SP-500 could reach the P5 = P1 target of 2524 over the next year.

Like the primary wave count, the alternate (blue) count remains valid above the low of 1981.  The Cycle 1 top would be likely on a break below 2040 and confirmed on a break of the 1981 low.  Below the 1981 level, the Cycle 2 (C2) correction of 50%/62% down to 1420/1239 is underway.   The first Primary A (PA ) wave of C2 is likely to reach the 1730 pivot area.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 3-25-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 3-25-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 3-25-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 3-25-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly with indicators 3-25-15

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