March 20th, 2015: SP-500 Mid-day/EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on March 20, 2015
12:45 pm EST: Primary count continues to play-out to near perfection. Expecting a new high at over slightly above 2120 early next week.
The primary count is that major [4]-P5-C1 of a large P5 Ending Diagonal (ED) completed at 2040. The major [5]-P5 wave up is underway and must complete with major [5] < [3], which is 139 points above the major [4] low or 2040 + 139 = 2179. The P5 = 0.5*P1 target is at 2172. Wave major [5] of the ED should be a 3-wave, minor A-B-C move up to 2172. Wave minor A is underway and should reach 2120 pivot area. Wave (1) of minor A completed at 2066, wave (2) retraced nearly 100% of (1) down to 2041, and wave (3) completed at 2107. Wave (4) looks to have completed at 2086, which is just above the 38% retrace of 2082. From a wave (4) low at 2086, wave (5) should now head to the 2120 pivot area to complete minor A. It is also possible (see red count labels) that the move up from the major [4] low of 2040 to 2081 was all of minor A and the move down to 2061 was minor B. Thus, this move up to 2120 to 2126 will be all of minor C and complete major [5]-P5-C1 in the next few days to week. In either case, Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V of the 6+ year, cyclical bull market is likely coming to end in the next month or two. Note: The Cycle 1 top would be likely on a break below 2040 and confirmed on a break of the 1981 low.
The alternate (blue) is that wave (2) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 completed at 2040. Wave (3) of minor 3 is underway with a target of 2265, where (3) = 1.62*(1). The wave minor 3 target is 2298, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 and major [3] target if 2393, where major [3] = 1.62*[1]. This alternate (blue) count is considerably more bullish than the primary count and would mean that the SP-500 could reach the P5 = P1 target of 2524 over the next year. Like the primary wave count, the alternate (blue) count remains valid above the minor 2 low of 1981.
Have a super weekend and enjoy the NCAA Tournament action !!!
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD):
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