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October 17th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 17, 2014

5:40 pm EST:    Today’s aggressive move up from 1862 to 1898 helps to further solidify the primary wave count.   The $NYMO closed above the zero line at +10 and VIX confirmed step 3 of the SPX buy signal, which is also supportive of the primary wave count showing the P4-C1 bottom at 1820.

It looks like P4-C1 might have bottomed on Wed, Oct 15th at the major [C]=1.62[A] target of 1820.  Minor 1 of major [5]-P5-C1 is now underway with a target of the 1926 pivot.   I’m expecting major [1]-P5-C1 to reach the 2019 pivot by the end of year 2014.   There is still the slim possibility that this move up from 1820 to 1898 is only a minor 4 wave of major [C]-P4-C1 as long as this move up does not move above the minor 1 low of 1913.   In this variant of the primary count there will be a re-test of the 1820 low in the coming days, where minor 5=1 at 1819, or the H&S target of 1811 or the 23% fib retrace of 1802 before the P5-C1 wave to new all-time highs gets underway.

The alternate (blue) count is that P4-C1 will become a large contracting triangle, buying more time before the P5-C1 wave gets underway.   In this wave count scenario, the 1820 low is only major [A]-P4-C1 and now the major [B]-P4-C1 wave is underway headed for the 1991 pivot by year-end 2014.  Then there will be major [C] wave down, [D] up and [E] down to complete the P4-C1 contracting triangle sometime in the spring of 2015.  Just like for the primary count variant, it is possible for this alternate (blue) count to have one more low below 1820 to complete major [A]-P4-C1, however today’s move up to 1898 makes that less likely.  Again it depends on if the SPX moves above 1913 first, before below 1820, which would confirm the P4-C1 low at 1820.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 10-17-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 10-17-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 10-17-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 10-17-14

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly chart EOD 10-17-14

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