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October 16th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 16, 2014

5:40 pm EST:   Today saw the SP-500 hold the 1820 low.  At the close today, the SPX closed back inside its lower BB triggering and SPX Buy Signal and the VIX closed back inside its upper BB triggering a 2nd SPX Buy Signal (see the SPX vs $NYMO vs $VIX chart below).

It looks like P4-C1 might have bottomed on Wed, Oct 15th at the major [C]=1.62[A] target of 1820.  Minor 1 of major [5]-P5-C1 is now underway with a target of the 1926 pivot.   I’m expecting major [1]-P5-C1 to reach the 2019 pivot by the end of year 2014.   There is still the possibility that this move up from 1820 to 1876 is only a minor 4 wave of major [C]-P4-C1 as long as this move up does not move above the minor 1 low of 1913.   In this variant of the primary count there will be a re-test of the 1820 low in the coming days, where minor 5=1 at 1819, or the H&S target of 1811 or the 23% fib retrace of 1802 before the P5-C1 wave to new all-time highs gets underway.

The alternate (blue) count is that P4-C1 will become a large contracting triangle, buying more time before the P5-C1 wave gets underway.   In this wave count scenario, the 1820 low is only major [A]-P4-C1 and now the major [B]-P4-C1 wave is underway headed for the 1991 pivot by year-end 2014.  Then there will be major [C] wave down, [D] up and [E] down to complete the P4-C1 contracting triangle sometime in the spring of 2015.  Just like for the primary count variant, it is possible for this alternate (blue) count to have one more low below 1820 to complete major [A]-P4-C1. Again it depends on if the SPX moves above 1913 first or not.


SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 10-16-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 10-16-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 10-16-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 10-16-14

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