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September 26th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on September 26, 2014

7:00 pm EST:  The SP-500 held 1968 pivot support today and this produced a move higher into the close that reached 1985.  The SP-500 price move up stalled at the falling 34-day EMA resistance of 1985 and the falling 13-day EMA resistance is 1990 should the SP-500 price move higher early next week.   The SP-500 price closed back inside its lower BB producing an SPX Buy confirmation (See the SPX vs $NYMO vs VIX Chart below).  The VIX Sell, SPX Buy also confirmed step 2 at the close.  This does give the alternate (blue) some additional probability (maybe 40%) than the 20% I approximated yesterday.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p23917655901&a=269536931&r=1377203427577&cmd=print

The primary wave count is that minor 3 of major [A]-P4-C1 is underway with a first target area of 1935, where  minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.  Wave (1) of minor 3 ended at 1966 and the move up to 1985 is near the 62% fib retrace of 1987 expected for wave (2).  The primary count as labeled remains valid for this wave (2) bounce below 2000.  Wave (3) of minor should next be headed for 1943, where (3)=1.62*(1).   I’m looking for this first major [A]-P4 wave down to reach the 1926 pivot area before the major [B] wave bounce for 50% retracement to 1973.  From the major [B] high, there should then be an even bigger leg down for major [C]-P4 to a target of major [C]=1.62*[A]=1822.  Ultimately P4-C1 should produce a 23% fib retracement of P3-C1, which from the 2019 high is at 1801.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that the move from 2011 to 1978 to 2019 to 1966 is an expanded flat for wave (2) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1.   The wave c-(2) target was 1.62*a = 1966, which was hit today completing wave (2).   Wave (3) up is underway and should move to new ATH’s above 2019 to complete major [5]-P3-C1 at the original major [5]=[1]=2085 target.  Wave i-(3) could reach 2000 before a waye ii-(3) retrace of 50% to 1983.   Wave iii-(3) should reach the iii=1.62*i target of 2040 and wave (3) should reach the (3)=1.62(1) target of 2072.  The alternate (blue) count as labeled remains valid above the wave (2) 1966 low.

Have an awesome weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 9-26-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 9-26-14

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