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September 25th, 2014: SP-500 Mid-day/EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on September 25, 2014

1:55 pm EST:  Here is the updated 15-min chart.

SP-500 15-min chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart MD 9-25-14

1:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 price broke below 1978.48 confirming the primary wave count and eliminating the alternate (blue) as previously labeled.  There is a new alternate (blue) count discussed and shown below, but it’s not very likely unless the SP-500 price were to quickly move back above 2000.

The primary wave count is that minor 3 of major [A]-P4-C1 is underway with a first target area of 1935, where  minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.   I’m looking for this first major [A]-P4 wave down to reach the 1926 pivot area before the major [B] wave bounce for 50% retracement to 1973.  From the major [B] high, there should then be an even bigger leg down for major [C]-P4 to a target of major [C]=1.62*[A]=1822.  Ultimately P4-C1 should produce a 23% fib retracement of P3-C1, which from the 2019 high is at 1801.  The primary count as labeled remains valid for this wave (2) bounce below 2000.

There is still one potential bullish alternate (blue) wave count that would have this move from 2011 to 1978 to 2019 to 1966 as an expanded flat for wave (2) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1.   The wave c-(2) target is 1.62*a = 1966.  Also the typical wave (2) retrace of 50% is at 1958.  There is also the light blue bull trend line on the 4-hr and daily charts that goes back to the year 2012, that sits at about the 1956 pivot over the next few days.  Thus if this alternate (blue) count is to have any life, then the SP-500 price needs to bottom soon.    Assuming wave (2) bottoms at or above the 1956 pivot, then wave (3) should get underway shortly and move to new ATH’s above 2019 to complete major [5]-P3-C1 at the original major [5]=[1]=2085 target.

SP-500 60-min chart (mid-day):
PUG SP-500 60-min chart MD 9-25-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart MD 9-25-14

 

SP-500 daily chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 daily chart MD 9-25-14

 

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