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August 8th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on August 8, 2014

6:40 pm EST:  Today we saw the a strong move up and out of the bullish falling wedge that we were watching yesterday.    This move up today has very likely set the minor 4 low (primary count) or minor A low (alternate blue count).   Whether or not this is the start of a new bull IT move above 1991 (primary) or just a ST bounce and then a fall to 1780 (alternate) is what all traders would like to know at the close today.  We will have to look for clues, one of which was if the bullish falling wedge was an Ending Diagonal (primary) or Leading Diagonal (alternate).  Looking at the 15-min chart, I could make a good case the wave structure for the falling wedge was 5-3-5-3-5, which is a more typical of and LD, where an ED is typically 3-3-3-3-3 in structure.   The daily fear hitting near zero on the Daily Fear and Greed indicator is also more indicative of the beginning of a P4 wave lower (alternate) and not a minor 4 wave and new bullish IT move up (primary).   We’ll also need to watch to see how the $NYMO move up progresses and if it can clear and close above the zero line and preferably above +20 (primary) or stalls again below zero (alternate).  The falling 13-day EMA (1942) and falling 34-day EMA (1950) should be watched close as well, as any re-test and fail in that area would favor the (alternate) vs closing above those levels (primary).  While the SP-500 did not over-lap is minor 1 high of 1884 (primary), the DJIA-30 did over-lap (alternate).  Ultimately from a pure E-wave TA perspective, break of 1991 confirms the primary and fall below 1905 confirms the alternate (blue).  Things are thing we can watch the next week.  For now the most important thing is to enjoy the weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 8-8-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 8-8-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 8-8-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 8-8-14

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