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August 6th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on August 6, 2014

6:05 pm EST:  Today the SP-500 closed back inside it’s lower BB giving a SP-500 buy confirmation signal.  Also the $NYMO confirmed at 2-day positive divergence vs SP-500 price with the close today above -79.  Both of these indicators should promote a move higher for the SP-500 price the next day or two.


The primary wave count is that minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C1 has bottomed at 1911 today.   Minor 5 of  major [5]-P3-C1 should be underway and will make a new high above 1991, with the likely target at the major [5]=[1]=2085.  The first waves i-ii of (1) of minor 5 might have completed today at 1928 and 1918, meaning tomorrow should bring a wave iii-(1) up to 1946, where iii=1.62*i.  The wave (1) target is the 1956 pivot.   This primary wave count would become invalid on a move below the minor 1 high of 1897 or 1884, if we move minor 1 to the initial 1884 high.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that P3-C1 topped at 1991 and this move lower to 1911 is minor A of major [A]-P4-C1.  There should be a minor B wave bounce to the 50% fib retrace of 1950, before wave minor C drops toward the P4 target area of 1780 which is the 23% fib retracement of P3.  This minor B bounce the next couple days and then a hard drop in a minor C wave could happen rapidly over next week or so (see the August of 2011 as an example).   A break of 1897 and then 1884 would confirm this alternate (blue) wave count.

It’s time to be cautious and watch to see if the  1897 to 1884 area holds or not.  There was a 13-day EMA (1949) vs 34-day EMA  (1953) bear-cross yesterday (which is SP-500 sell signal on the daily chart).  The SP-500 needs to re-gain and close above 1956 pivot soon to avoid an intermediate term (IT) trend change.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 8-6-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 8-6-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 8-6-14

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