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August 5th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on August 5, 2014

4:15 pm EST:   Today closed with a 2 day potential +divergence on the $NYMO higher high (-79 vs -89) vs a lower low SPX (1920 vs 1925) price close.  Thus, there is the potential for at least a 2-day bounce on the SP-500 price, which fits both wave counts.

The primary wave count is that minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C1 has bottomed at 1914 or will bottom above 1897.   Minor 5 of  major [5]-P3-C1 should make a new high above 1991, with the likely target at the major [5]=[1]=2085.  This primary wave count would become invalid on a move below the minor 1 high of 1897 or 1884, if we move minor 1 to the initial 1884 high.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that P3-C1 topped at 1991 and this move lower to 1914 is minor A of major [A]-P4-C1.  There should be a minor B wave bounce to the 50% fib retrace of 1953, before wave minor C drops toward the P4 target area of 1780 which is the 23% fib retracement of P3.  This minor B bounce the next couple days and then a hard drop in a minor C wave could happen rapidly over next week or so (see the August of 2011 as an example).   A break of 1897 and then 1884 would confirm this alternate (blue) wave count.

It’s time to be cautious, and watch to see if the  1897 to 1884 area holds or not.  There was a 13-day EMA (1953) close below the 34-day EMA  (1955) bear-cross, SPX sell signal triggered at the close today (see the SP-500 daily chart below).  The SP-500 needs to re-gain and close above 1956 pivot soon to avoid an intermediate term (IT) trend change.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 8-5-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 8-5-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 8-5-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 8-5-14

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