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July 18th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on July 18, 2014

5:30 pm EST:   The SPX moved aggressively higher today from the panic low at 1956 yesterday EOD and closed at 1978.  The $NYMO SPX Buy Signal and VIX Sell/SPX Buy signals were both confirmed at the close today, as well as a confirmed 60-min MACD bull cross.   The alternate (blue) count minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C1 ascending triangle wins out.  I’m expecting a break above the previous ATH of 1985.59 to occur next week.   It looks like wave (1) of minor 5 of  major [5]-P3-C1 might have end at the 1980 late this afternoon.   So early next week there could some weakness for wave (2) that should hold the 1968 pivot and the 50% fib retrace of wave (1) before the wave (3) of minor 5 launch higher above SPX 2000 going into the end of July.

As for targets for the completion of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 I have the following targets:

Minimum Ascending Triangle target is 1956 + (1986-1945) = 1997.

Typical Ascending Triangle target is 1986 + (1986=1945) = 2027.

Minor 5 = 0.5*minor 1 = 2036
Minor 5 = 0.62*minor 1 = 2055
Minor 5 = minor 1 = 2115

Major [5]=[1] = 2085

I like the confluence around SPX 2027 to 2035.

It will take a break of 1945 (minor 4 orthodox low) and then 1897 (minor 1 high) to confirm the P3-C1-top.  On the 4-hr and daily charts you will notice the light blue bull channel lines governing the P3-C1 wave that have been in place since the P2-C1 low at 1075 since Oct 2011.    The lower light blue trend line insects the key 1897 pivot in mid-to-late August.  We need to see a break of the lower light blue trend line and the key 1897 level before we can call the top of P3-C1.

Have a GREAT weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 7-18-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 7-18-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 7-18-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 7-18-14

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly chart EOD 7-18-14

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