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July 17th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on July 17, 2014

5:25 pm EST:   There is still no resolution to the 1945 to 1986 SPX trading range that has been established since late June.   The $NYMO closed below its lower BB at -63 vs -60, setting up the $NYMO SPX Buy trigger.  A close of the $NYMO back inside the lower BB will confirm the SPX Buy signal.  The VIX also moved above its upper BB at 14.54 vs 13.35, setting up the VIX Sell, SPX Buy trigger.   A close of the VIX back inside the upper BB will confirm the SPX Buy signal.

Primary count is that wave (c) of minor A of major [A]-P4-C1 is underway headed for the 1913 area, where (c)=2.62(a).   Primary count would become invalid on a move above 1986.

Alternate (blue) count is that minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C1 is underway and could be playing out as either a triangle or flat.   The triangle (e) of minor 4 wave could be complete today at 1956 or the flat wave (c) of minor would target 1953 to 1946.  The alternate (blue) count as labeled should remain above the 1945 level, which is the 23% retrace of minor 3.  However minor 4 would not overlap minor 1 until 1897, so another version of the alternate (blue) would remain valid above 1897.  The 38% retrace for minor 4 is at 1921.   Thus, it will take break below 1897 to fully invalidate the alternate (blue) and fully confirm the primary wave count.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 7-17-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 7-17-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 7-17-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 7-17-14

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