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June 5th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on June 5, 2014

5:35 pm EST:  The long-awaited P3=1.23*P1 target was hit today at 1941.74.   However, it might take a few more weeks to month (i.e. mid-July) to find the P3-C1 top of the year 1998 scenario plays out here, like I think it will.

In the year 1998, P3-C5-SCIII topped for the SP-500 in mid-July.  Like the year  204 the Russell-2000 was lagging the SP-500 all spring as it topped P3 in March well ahead of the SP-500.  In the year 1998 like 2014, the year Russell-2000 dropped below it’s 200-day SMA in late April before rallying into mid-July to form the right shoulder of a large head and shoulders topping pattern that ushered in the P4 wave drop into October.  The details are shown below on the year 1998 to 2014 comparison chart between the RUT and SPX.

Year 1998 vs 2014 comparison for RUT vs SPX (6-5-14):

PUG RUT vs SPX Comparision 1998 vs 2014 6-5-14

The primary count is that wave v-(c) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 has either topped at 1942 or is very close to a top at the P3=1.23*P1 target of 1941.

The alternate (blue) count it that wave iii-(c) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 has either completed at 1942 or is very close to complete.  Wave iv-(c) should retrace 23%/38% to 1925/1912 before wave v-(c) heads for the (c)=1.23*(a) target of 1953 or the ED Max of 1973.   This alternate (blue) count should take a few more weeks to a month play out to a top between 1953 and 1973 in early to mid-July.  There is also a major [5]=[1] target at 1974, which agrees with the ED maximum of 1973.

A move below 1862 confirms the P3-C1 top.   A move above the Ending Diagonal Maximum of 1973 invalidates both wave counts and means that P3-C1 is pushing higher likely above 2000.  The next major fib extension after P3=1.23*P1=1941 is at P3=1.62*P1=2215.  Thus, a move above SPX 1973 would potentially be very bullish.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 6-5-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 6-5-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 6-5-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 6-5-14

 

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