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May 28th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on May 28, 2014

4:55 pm EST:   A new all-time high of 1914 on the SP-500 today and along with it the VIX Buy, SPX Sell Signal confirming Step 3 was triggered.  This signal indicates that an important top (P3-C1) is likely near.


The primary count is that wave iii-(c) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 is complete at 1912.  A wave iv-(c) correction (23% retrace) is underway to back-test the 1902 break-out before wave v-(c) heads for 1926, where v=i.  It is also possible that iv-(c) completed at 1907 today and move up to 1914 completed v-(c) meaning that P3-C1 topped at 1914 today.  In either case the primary count should end P3-C1 in the next few days to week and the P4-C1 wave headed back down to the test the Feb 2014 low of 1738 will be underway.

The alternate (blue) count variant to the primary count is that the 3-wave move up from 1868 to 1914 is only wave i-(c) as an end diagonal for wave (c) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1.   There should be a much deeper wave ii-(c) retrace (50%) to test the 1884 pivot if this alternate (blue) count is correct vs the primary count.  This wave (c) ending diagonal could drag on in time into early July with P3-C1 topping has high at the 1973 ED maximum or more likely in the (c)=(a)=1939 to (c)=1.23*(a)=1957 area.  There is also a P3=1.23*P1 target at 1941.

For either count, it will take a break below 1862 to confirm that the P3-C1 top is in place.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 5-28-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 5-28-14

SP-500 4-h chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 5-28-14

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