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May 27th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on May 27, 2014

4:35 pm EST:   A new all-time high of 1912 on the SP-500 today and along with it the VIX Buy, SPX Sell Signal confirming Step 2 was triggered.  A green VIX tomorrow would trigger the Step 3 final confirmation of the VIX Buy, SPX Sell Signal.  This signal indicates that an important top (P3-C1) is likely near.


The primary count is that wave iii-(c) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 is complete or nearly complete at 1912 today.  There should be a 10 point correction (23% retrace) for wave iv-(c) down to back-test the 1902 break-out before wave v-(c) heads for 1926, where v=i.  This primary count should end P3-C1 in the next few days to week.

The alternate (blue) count variant to the primary count is that the 3-wave move up from 1868 to 1912 is only wave i-(c) as an end diagonal for wave (c) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1.   There should be a much deeper wave ii-(c) retrace to test the 1884 pivot if this alternate (blue) count is correct vs the primary count.  This wave (c) ending diagonal could drag on in time into early July with P3-C1 topping has high at the 1973 ED maximum or more likely in the (c)=(a)=1939 to (c)=1.23*(a)=1957 area.  There is also a P3=1.23*P1 target at 1941.

For either count, it will take a break below 1862 to confirm that the P3-C1 top is in place.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 5-27-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 5-27-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 5-27-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 5-27-14

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