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May 2nd, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on May 2, 2014

4:10 pm EST:  An interesting Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) day.  Both the SP-500 and DJIA-30 came close but failed to make a new All-Time High (ATH).  The SP-500 fell short by just 6 points, hitting 1891 vs 1897 and the DJIA-30 came even closer on a percentage basis, hitting 16,320 vs 16,332.  The fact that both failed to make a new ATH and then sold off brings up the possibility of failed minor 5 wave completion to the near year long major [5]-P3-C1 Ending Diagonal (ED) wave pattern.

The primary count on the SP-500 is that wave (c) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 is underway.  The SP-500 should make a new all-time high during the minute wave (c) of minor 5.  This will complete the major [5] ending diagonal that began nearly a 1 year ago in August of 2013 from the major [4]-P3-C1 low of 1627.  There is a (c)=(a) target at 1921 and the (c)=1.23(a) target is at 1937 which agrees with the P3=1.23*P1 target of 1941.  I suspect the SP-500 will top P3-C1 somewhere round 1921 to 1941 during May.  Within wave (c) of minor 5 it looks like wave i-(c) ended at 1891 and wave ii-(c) is correcting lower now with a target area of the 50%/62% retrace of 1871/1866.   Once wave ii-(c) ends, wave iii-(c) should be headed up towards a target of 1921, where iii=1.62*i.   Note there is a small IHS on the 15-min chart with head at 1850, neckline at 1888 and target of 1925.

The new alternate (blue) count is that the SP-500 completed P3-C1 at 1891 today as the failed minor 5 wave of major [5]-P3-C1.  This means that the P4-C1 correction is now underway in wave minor 1 of major [A]-P4.  I’m looking for minor 1 target the 1814 pivot by mid-May.  Major [A] should reach the 1730 pivot in July and P4-C1 should end around the 38% retrace target of 1612 later this fall.  It will take break above the ATH of 1897 to invalidate this alternate (blue) wave count.

The maximum extension of the ending diagonal is at 1973 and there is a (c)=1.62(a) target at 1965.  Within the ending diagonal yellow trend-lines this would target the August 2014 time frame should the SP-500 decide to grind slowly higher this summer.   A break below 1814 will confirm that P3-C1 has topped and the ending diagonal is complete.  From the P3-C1 top, the SP-500 should correct back to where the ending diagonal began at 1627 for the P4-C1 wave.  Also basis a P3-C1 high at 1941 the typical wave 4, 38% retrace target is at 1612 for P4-C1.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 5-2-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 5-2-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 5-2-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 5-2-14

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly chart EOD 5-2-14

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