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May 1st, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on May 1, 2014

5:20 pm EST:  A new recovery high (since the recent 1850 low) of 1888 was made today.    The ED still needs at least one more push up to break above 1897 to set a new all-time high and complete the P3-C1 wave.

The primary count on the SP-500 is that wave (c) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 is underway.  The SP-500 should make a new all-time high during the minute wave (c) of minor 5.  This will complete the major [5] ending diagonal that began nearly a 1 year ago in August of 2013 from the major [4]-P3-C1 low of 1627.  There is a (c)=(a) target at 1921 and the (c)=1.23(a) target is at 1937 which agrees with the P3=1.23*P1 target of 1941.  I suspect the SP-500 will top P3-C1 somewhere round 1921 to 1941 during May.  Within wave (c) of minor 5 it looks like wave i-(c) ended at 1880 and wave ii-(c) completed today at 1873 as a simple flat.   Wave iii-(c) is likely underway and headed for a target of 1919, where iii=1.62*i.   Note there is a small IHS on the 15-min chart with head at 1850, neckline at 1884 and target of 1918.  There is an alternate (blue) count variant of the primary count that has today’s 1888 high as the end of wave iii-(c) and the drop to 1880 as the v-(c).  Thus, there should be one more push higher in wave v-(c) to the 1900 to 1912 area to complete minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1.

The maximum extension of the ending diagonal is at 1973 and there is a (c)=1.62(a) target at 1965.  Within the ending diagonal yellow trend-lines this would target the August 2014 time frame should the SP-500 decide to grind slowly higher this summer.   A break below 1814 will confirm that P3-C1 has topped and the ending diagonal is complete.  From the P3-C1 top, the SP-500 should correct back to where the ending diagonal began at 1627 for the P4-C1 wave.  Also basis a P3-C1 high at 1941 the typical wave 4, 38% retrace target is at 1612 for P4-C1.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 5-1-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 5-1-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 5-1-14

 

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