May 1st, 2014: SP-500 BOD Update
Posted by pugsma on April 30, 2014
April 30th, 4:30 pm EST: The SP-500 closed at the 1884 pivot resistance and is poised gap up above it tomorrow and make a new all-time high above 1897.
The primary count on the SP-500 is that wave (c) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 is underway. The SP-500 should make a new all-time high during the minute wave (c) of minor 5. This will complete the major [5] ending diagonal that began nearly a 1 year ago in August of 2013 from the major [4]-P3-C1 low of 1627. There is a (c)=(a) target at 1921 and the (c)=1.23(a) target is at 1937 which agrees with the P3=1.23*P1 target of 1941. I suspect the SP-500 will top P3-C1 somewhere round 1921 to 1941 during May. Within wave (c) of minor 5 it looks like wave i-(c) ended at 1880 and wave ii-(c) completed today at 1873 as a simple flat. Wave iii-(c) is likely underway and headed for a target of 1919, where iii=1.62*I. Note there is a small IHS on the 15-min chart with head at 1850, neckline at 1884 and target of 1918.
The maximum extension of the ending diagonal is at 1973 and there is a (c)=1.62(a) target at 1965. Within the ending diagonal yellow trend-lines this would target the August 2014 time frame should the SP-500 decide to grind slowly higher this summer. A break below 1814 will confirm that P3-C1 has topped and the ending diagonal is complete. From the P3-C1 top, the SP-500 should correct back to where the ending diagonal began at 1627 for the P4-C1 wave. Basis 1941 the typical wave 4, 38% retrace target is at 1612 for P4.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD, 4-30):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD. 4-30):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD, 4-30):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD), 4-30):
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