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April 23rd, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on April 23, 2014

6:00 pm EST:  The NYSE Advance-Decline Issues Chart (http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NYAD) made a new all-time high back on Wednesday April 16th, signaling that SP-500 price would soon follow suit and make a new above 1897.   The SP-500 has reached 1885 thus far.

After re-evaluating the SP-500 charts on all time frames, I believe the primary count that the move down from 1897 to 1814 was minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C1 and that minor 5 of P3-C1 will reach 2085, where [5]=[1] is a little too aggressive.   The SP-500 weekly charts shows that since first hitting the upper bullish white channel line at 1851 back in late 2013, the SP-500 price has been unable move above this channel line for the past 5 months.  During this time there has also been a severe loss of momentum as shown in the SP-500 weekly chart MACD and RSI indicators.  Consequently it looks like major [5]-P3-C1 has been playing out as a large Ending Diagonal (ED) since the 1627 low back in August 2013.  An Ending Diagonal is a 3-3-3-3-3 wave structure that ends a long advance like the P3-C1 wave we have experienced from the October 2011 low of 1075.  When an Ending Diagonal completes, it typically moves back to where it began, which in this case is the major [4]-P1-C1 low of 1627.  Thus the P4-C1 target is 38% retrace of P3-C1 at 1612, which is near the wave 4 of previous degree at 1627.

The primary count is that minuette wave v of minute (a) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 is underway headed for 1897 to 1900.  Wave minute (b) of minor 5 should then retrace 38%/50% to 1858/1850 before wave (c) reaches the 1943 area, where (c)=(a).  There is a confluence of targets in this area at 1941, where P3=1.23*P1 and at 1953, where major [5]=0.62*[1].  The absolute maximum of this major [5] ending diagonal is at 1814 + (1897-1738) =1973.

The alternate (blue) count variant to the primary wave count is that minute (c) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 is already underway and headed at (c)=0.5*(a) target of 1910.   This would also agree with the major [5] = 0.5*[1] target of 1912.

In either scenario this 2.5 year old P3-C1 wave should be coming to an end either in late April (alt blue) or mid-to-late May (primary) and the P4-C1 wave correction should be underway soon.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 4-23-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 4-23-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 4-23-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 4-23-14

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly chart EOD 4-23-14

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