March 21st, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on March 21, 2014
5:00 pm EST: Today was potentially a very key day in the completion of P3-C1 wave that has been going on since the Oct 2011 P2-C1 low at 1075. Because of this fact, I decided to re-do the mid-day post to include the final 3 hours of SP-500 price action in the wave counts.
The primary count has been modified slightly to show that the consolidation between 1884 and 1834 has been a minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C1 ascending triangle with flat top at 1884. It looks like based on the price action near the close today that wave (e) or minor 4 is complete or nearly complete at 1864. The next move should be a minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 wave up to an ascending triangle target of 1934, where 1884 + (1884-1834)), to complete P3-C1 as originally forecast by the primary count. There is also some confluence target for the end of P3-C1 at 1941, where P3=1.23*P1. The primary count minor 4 ascending triangle remains valid above the wave (a) low of 1834.
The alternate (blue) count is that minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 complete today at 1884 as the final thrust out of a contracting triangle for minor 4 at 1850. P4-C1 down is now underway headed for an initial target of 1697, which is a 23% retrace of P3-C1. The first major [A]-P4 wave lower should target the 1775 pivot area. The alternate (blue) remains valid below the 1884 high today.
Also, notice the key negative divergences showing up on the SP-500 weekly char for RSI, MACD and Full-STO. These weekly chart negative divergence will eventually help usher in the P4-C1 correction now (alt count) or soon (primary count).
Have an awesome weekend !
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SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD):
SP-500 weekly chart with TA indicators (3-21-14):
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