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March 21, 2014: SP-500 Mid-day Update

Posted by pugsma on March 21, 2014

1:10 pm EST:  The SP-500 made a new all-time high at 1883.97 and thus chose the path upward per the primary wave count.  It’s now just a matter how much higher this P3-C1 wave will go before the P4-C1 correction gets underway.

The primary count is that minute i-(3) of minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 topped at 1874 .  Wave minute ii-(3) of minor 3 was a sharp 62% retrace to 1850.  Now wave iii-(3) is underway and headed toward a target at 1905, where iii=1.62*i.  Wave (3) should reach a 1921 target, where (3)=1.62*(1), which is also the IHS target of 1918.  Ultimately, major [5]-P3-C1 should reach a target in the 1941 to 1953 area, where P3=1.23*P1=1941 and [5]=0.62*[1]=1953.  This primary count remains valid above 1850, where wave ii-(3) began.

The new alternate (blue) count is a little less bullish variant of the primary count that could P3-C1 topping at any time from here at 1884 to about 1909.  For the alternate (blue) the SP-500 is in wave minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1, as minor 4 played out as a larger triangle wave between 1834 and 1884.   A typical triangle target is a measured move from the triangle APEX (1859) plus the triangle height (50), thus 1859 + 50 = 1909.  This alternate (blue) count remains valid above 1850, where wave (e) of minor 4 ended.

The key levels to watch now to determine if the P3-C1 wave has topped at 1850 and then 1834.  A move below 1850 should signal the top of P3-C1 is likely in place and move below 1834 should confirm.

SP-500 15-min chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart MD 3-21-14

SP-500 60-min chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart MD 3-21-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart MD 3-21-14

SP-500 daily chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 daily chart MD 3-21-14

SP-500 Week Chart with Indicators (3-21-14):

PUG SP-500 Weekly Chart with Indicators 3-21-14

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