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March 20th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on March 20, 2014

3:30 pm EST:  The SP-500 continues to be range bound between 1840 and 1884.  Considering the IT/LT trend has been upward for the past year, this type of consolidation should be considered bullish at least for the ST.  Hence the primary count remains the primary unless the 1840 level is breached.

The primary count is that minute i-(3) of minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 topped at 1874 .  Wave minute ii-(3) of minor 3 was a sharp 62% retrace to 1850.  Now wave iii-(3) is underway and headed toward a target at 1905, where iii=1.62*i.  Wave (3) should reach a 1921 target, where (3)=1.62*(1).  Ultimately, major [5]-P3-C1 should reach a target in the 1941 to 1953 area.   This primary count remains valid above 1840.

The alternate (blue) count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C1 completed the (x) of minor 2 double Zig-Zag corrective at the 78% retrace of 1874.   Wave (y) of minor 2 should now drop to 1803 where (y)=1.62(w), to complete minor 2.  There is also a 50%/62% retrace target at 1812/1795 for minor 2.  Once minor 2 completes for this alternate (blue), there will be a new higher high than 1884 for waves minor 3 and minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 just like for the primary count, however P3-C1 will likely reach much higher (above 2000).   The alternate (blue) count goes invalid on a move above 1884 before a drop below 1840.

Note: A drop below the 1775 pivot range (1768 to 1782) would likely indicate that P3-C1 topped 1884 and the P4-C1 correction down to at least a 23% retrace target of 1697 is underway.  It will take a breach below 1738 for a full confirmation that P3-C1 topped at 1884.  This is a 2nd alternate (red) count to be aware of should price begin to deteriorate further than the 1775 pivot range.

Also note the battling potential IHS and HS patterns on the 15-min that correspond to the primary and alternate (blue) counts, respectively.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 3-20-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 3-20-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 3-20-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 3-20-14

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