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March 5th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on March 5, 2014

5:55 pm EST:   The positive momentum since the 1738 low in early February, means it’s time to consider an even more bullish wave count than the primary count (see the new alternate (blue) count below).

The primary count is that wave v-(1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 is headed for 1885, where v=I.  Once wave (1) completes near 1885, there should be a wave (2) retrace to 38%/50% to 1866/1860 before wave (3) heads to the 1943 target, where (3)=1.62*(1).  The minor 3=1 target is 1955 and the completion of P3-C1 should reach the 1941 (P3=1.23*P1) to 1965 (IHS target) area.

The new alternate (blue) count is basically the primary count with more bullish wave extension.   Why should P3 stop at 1.23*P1=1941, when the 1.62*P1 fib extension = 2215 is more typical for a strong wave 3?  Who could argue that the P3 wave up off the Oct 2011 low of 1075 is not a strong wave 3?   For this alternate (blue) count this strong move up from the major [4]-P3-C1 low of 1738 to 1885 is only minor 1 of major [5]-P3-C1.  We should therefore be expecting a little larger pull-back than the primary count for minor 2 down to the 50%/62% retrace target of 1812/1794 before minor 3 charges headed toward a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 = 2050 target.  There is a [5]=[1] target at 2085 for the completion of P3-C1 or it could even extend to the P3=1.62*P1 target of 2215 into late 2015 to early 2016.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 3-5-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 3-5-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 3-5-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 3-5-14

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