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March 4th, 2014: SP-500 Mid-day/EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on March 4, 2014

12:15 pm EST:   Yet another new all-time high for the SP-500 here at 1871.44 thus far.

The primary count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C1 bottomed at 1834 as an expanded flat.  The minor 3 wave up is underway with a target at 1955, where minor 3=1.   This first wave up is wave (1) of minor 3 and it looks like it could reach 1880 or slightly higher.  The wave iii-(1) target is at 1876, where iii=2.62*i.   After wave (1) ends around 1880, there should be a wave (2) retrace of 38%/50% to 1863/1857 before wave (3) heads for 1931, where (3)=1.62*(1).  Ultimately major [5]-P3-C1 should end in the 1941 (P3=1.23*P1) to 1965 area (the IHS target).  Note that the primary count remains valid above the minor 2 low of 1834.

The new alternate (blue) count is that the 1834 low is actually minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C1, not minor 2.  This means that this rapid move up from 1834 to 1871 thus far is actually the final push up for major [5]-P3-C1 that should end in the 1880 over the next few days.  From the P3-C1 top, a significant P4-C1 correction down to the 1600 will begin.  A break below 1834 should make this alternate (blue) count more likely.   Note that on the weekly SP-500 chart in the spring of 2011 that major [5]-P1-C1 wave ended in a very similar fashion to this alternate (blue) count, where major [5]-P1-C1 wave made a slightly higher high than major [3]-P1-C1 and then the P2 correction began in May of 2011.

The key level to watch is now 1834.  As long s the SP-500 stays above 1834, the primary count can keep pushing higher for P3-C1.

SP-500 15-min chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 15-min MD 3-4-14

SP-500 60-min chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 60-min MD 3-4-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 4-hr MD 3-4-14

SP-500 daily chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 daily MD 3-4-14

SP-500 weekly chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 weekly MD 3-4-14

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