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February 28th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on February 28, 2014

4:50 pm EST:  Yet another new all-time SP-500 high was made today at 1867.92 and also a new all-time closing high of 1859.45,

The primary count is that wave iii-(3) of minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 is underway headed for an initial target area of 1892, where iii=1.62*i and the wave (3)=1.62*(1) target is at 1898.  The minor 3 target is 1934, where minor 3 = minor 1.  Finally the major [5]-P3-C1 target area is 1941 to 1965.  This primary count remains valid above the wave (2) of minor 3 low of 1840.66 and above the minor 2 low of 1824.58.  Should the 1840.66 level and then the 1824.58 level break, the primary count would become invalid and the alternate (blue) count would be more likely.

The alternate (blue) count is that an Ending Diagonal (ED) for minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 may have completed today at 1868.  The 1840.66 low looks like the end of wave (4) of minor 5.  This means that the absolute maximum for wave (5) of minor 5 to complete the ED is at 1874.79.  Today the SP-500 reached 1867.92 before selling off hard down to 1847.67.  It looks like the ED may have come to an end completing P3-C1 at 1868 and thus ushering in the P4-C1 wave that will take the SP-500 down to the 1620 area over next few months.   The 20 point drop from 1868 to 1648 was wave (1) of minor 1 of major [A]-P4-C1.  The late day bounce to 1860 is as 62% fib retrace for wave (2) of minor 1.  If the alternate (blue) count is correct then early next week the SP-500 should drop about 33 points down to 1828 for wave (3) of minor.  Ultimately minor 1 should break below 1824.58 to the 1814 pivot invalidating the primary count.  Major [A]-P4-C1 could reach the 1730 pivot by the end of March in a very rapid reversal of the February rally from 1739 to 1868.

Beyond 1874.79, the ED is invalid and so is the alternate (blue) count.   Below 1824.58 the primary count is invalid.   This means a move above 1874.79 will confirm the primary wave count headed for 1941 to 1965 and a drop below 1824.58 would  likely mean that P4-C1 has begun and is headed for the 1620 area.  Certainly a time to very careful and to protect your gains should the 1840 and 1825 levels be breached.

House Keeping:  March PW’s will be sent out via e-mail on Sunday evening March 2nd to be used for the Monday March 3rd blog post.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 2-28-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 2-28-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 2-28-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 2-28-14

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly chart EOD 2-28-14

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