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February 18th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on February 18, 2014

3:10 pm EST:  Inverse Head and Shoulders (primary count) or Double Top (alternate blue count)?  That is the question to be resolved over the next week or two.   The IHS targets 1964 and the double top targets 1625 either of which would occur sometime in May/June.  So the stakes are high for both the bulls and bears at the 1849 pivot is re-tested.

The primary count is minor 1 of major [5]-P3-C1 is completing here at the 1849 pivot range (1842 to 1856).  Once minor 1 completes, minor 2 will drop to the 1815 pivot area to form the right shoulder for an IHS with head of 1738, neckline of 1851 and target of 1964 for the end of major [5]-P3-C1.  The primary count remains valid as long as the minor 2 wave holds above 1738.  However, the 13-day EMA, 34-day EMA and 50-day SMA cluster is now rising from 1810 and thus the 1815 pivot area should hold any minor 2 retracement.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [5]-P3-C1 should complete at the 1849 pivot range (1842 to 1856) and will form a double top with a target of 1625.  A break below 1738 is necessary to confirm the double top and the alternate (blue) count.  However a break of the 1775 pivot should be enough to make this alternate (blue) count more likely than the primary count.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 2-18-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 2-18-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 2-18-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 2-18-14

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