February 7th, 2014: Mid-day/EOD SP-500 Update
Posted by pugsma on February 7, 2014
1:15 pm EST: With today’s continuation move higher for the SP-500, it looks like the “Denali Bottom” may have came one day early (Wed Feb 5th) which indicates that primary count should be that the major [4]-P3-C1 low is in place at 1738. It will be very interesting now the next two to three weeks of February to see which wave count wins out. Hold 1738 and the SP-500 is likely headed to 1941 into late Spring to early summer. Break 1738 and the SP-500 is likely headed to at least 1673 and more likely 1556 in late spring to early summer. So we are looking for either a summer high (P3-C1) or a summer low (P4-C1) that are some 400 SP-500 points in opposition. Both wave counts have reasonably the same probability at this point in time. More data (waves) are required to determine which count is the correct one. But since we have been in a strong P3-C1 wave uptrend since Oct 2011, we have to give the primary bullish count the nod here today, Feb 7th, 2013.
The primary count is that major [4]-P3-C1 bottomed at 1738. Minor 1 of major [5]-P3-C1 up is underway with a target in the 1794 to 1808 area. Once minor 1 completes there should be a minor 2 retrace to about the 1775 pivot area before minor 3 heads to new all-time highs above 1851. The ultimate P3-C1 target area is 1941, here P3=1.23*P1.
The alternate (blue) count is that minor A of major [W]-P4-C1 completed at 1738 and this move high is a minor B wave targets at the 50%/62% retrace of 1794/1808. Once minor B completes minor C of major [W]-P4-C1 should head below 1738 with a target in the 1687 pivot area. That could be it for P4-C1 at the 23% retrace (1673) of P3 or more likely P4-C1 will put in a second Zig-Zag and head for the 38% retrace (1556) of P3 at the lower daily and weekly chart white channel line. Note that the alternate (blue) count would lose a lot of probability on a move above the 62% retrace for minor B at 1808.
Have a great weekend.
SP-500 15-min chart (mid-day):
SP-500 60-min chart (mid-day):
SP-500 4-hr chart (mid-day):
SP-500 daily chart (mid-day):
SP-500 weekly chart (mid-day):
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