February 3rd, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on February 4, 2014
Feb 4th, 2:45 pm EST: Today’s price drop to 1739 did not theoretically violate original minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C1 threshold of 1730. However, it is now a big enough drop to ensure that the minor 4 count no longer have the “right look” of a E-wave count. What does have the “right look” is that this drop from 1851 is a major [4]-P3-C1 wave. The proposed major [4] wave from last fall never really had the “right look” in filling the up channel.
The primary count is that major [3]-P3-C1 topped at 1851 and this move lower is major [4]-P3-C1 wave. There is a 23% fib retract target for major [4] at 1717. Looking at the move down from 1851 thus far, we can count 3 minor waves. Minor A was the five wave drop from 1851 to 1770. Minor B was the move up from 1770 to 1798. And now minor C of major [4] is underway headed for C=A=1718 target. Wave (1) of minor C was the drop from 1799 to 1772, wave (2) up to 1794 and now wave (3) down to 1739. I’m looking for a small wave (4) consolidation to the 23%/38% fib retrace of 1752/1757 before wave (5) completes minor C near the 1718 target. It will take a break above the wave (1) of minor C low of 1772 to confirm the end of minor C of major [4]-P3-C1. Once major [4]-P3-C1 completes, there should then be a major [5]-P3-C1 rally toward the original 1941 target where P3=1.23*P1.
The alternate (blue) count is minor 2 of major [A]-P4-C1 completed at 1799. Now minor 3 is headed for the 1699, where minor 3=1.23*minor 1. Ultimately major [A]-P4-C1 should reach the 1687 pivot area, which corresponds a head and shoulders top (1851) with neckline at 1770 and target of 1689.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
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