January 31st, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on February 1, 2014
2-1-14, 11:00 am EST: The SP-500 is at a tipping point at the 1770 area. A break of 1770 will likely lead to a quick move down of about 80 to 100 points to the 1687 pivot (alternate count). A hold of 1770, should lead to a rally of 100+ points to new highs at 1873 to 1937 (primary count).
The primary count is that wave ii-(1) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 ended at 1772. Wave iii-(1) is underway headed for a 1819 target, where iii=1.62*i. Wave minute (1) should reach the 1830 to 1849 area before wave (2) dips to 1800-1811. Wave (3) of minor 5 should then break a new high above 1851. The minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 completion targets range from 1873 to 1937, see the 60-min chart. A break below 1772 would invalidate this primary count as labeled and make the alternate (blue) count more likely. And a break of 1730 (minor 1 of major [5]) would end the primary count all-together and confirm the alternate (blue) count that P4 has been underway since the 1951 high.
The alternate (blue) count is that wave (b) of minor 2 of major [A]-P4-C1 completed at 1772. Now wave (c) of minor 2 should reach at least the (c)=(a) target of 1801 to the (c)=1.62*(a) target of 1819. The 50%/62% fib retrace target for minor 2 is at 1811/1821. There is pivot resistance at 1814. Once minor 2 completes, minor 3 will head for the 1709 pivot area, where minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1. Ultimately major [A]-P4-C1 should reach the 1687 pivot area, which corresponds a head and shoulders top (1851) with neckline at 1770 and target of 1689. This alternate (blue) count remains valid below 1851.
SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
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