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January 16th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 16, 2014

7:25 pm EST:  Primary count is that wave i-(3) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 has ended at 1851.   The wave ii-(3) correction is underway headed for the 50%/62% fib retrace at 1833/1829. Once wave ii-(3) completes, then wave iii-(3) should move above 1900. Ultimately P3-C1 should ended in the 1931 to 1941 target area over the next month or two.  This primary count remains valid above the recent 1815 low for wave (2).

The alternate (blue) count has wave v-(5) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 complete at 1851 yesterday to 1871 within the next week.  There is a minor 5=1 target at 1871.   The is a double top potential at 1850 that measures to 1780 which would be the minor 1 of major [A]-P4-C1 wave down before a minor 2 bounce.    Note that there is potential head and shoulders topping pattern (shown on the 60-min char) that began in late November that should help take the major [A]-P4 wave down to about 1687 to 1730.  Ultimately the P4-C1 correction should be at least a 23% fib retracement of P3-C1, which will drop the SP-500 back down to the 1687 pivot area over the next 6 to 9 months.

Note that it will take a break below the 1815 low to make the alternate (blue) count more probable.  As long the SP-500 stays above 1815, the intermediate trend remains higher via the primary wave count.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 1-16-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 1-16-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 1-16-14

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