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December 19th, 2013: GLD Wave Count Update

Posted by pugsma on December 19, 2013

11:35 pm EST:  With the drop below the P4-C5 June low 114.68 today the primary count for GLD went invalid.  While GLD P4-C5 is not technically invalid until a drop below the P1-C5 high of 100.44, the GLD P4-C5 wave no longer has the “right look” in relation to the P3-C5 wave.  Tonight I have decided to declare the P5-C5 cycle top at 185.85 from September 2011.  This is history cyclical top for Gold of over 100 years in the making (see the historical Gold chart from 1792 to 2013 below).  This means that GLD has been in a bear market cycle PC-CA wave down from 185.85 since Sept 2011.  It looks like to me that PC-CA is about to end at the PC=1.62*PA area of 113.91 or the [5]=[1]=112.92 (see the weekly and 4-hr charts for details).  This means a large multi-year cycle CB wave is about to get underway.  There is potential positive divergence building on the GLD weekly chart for the RSI and MACD with the new price low below 114.68, which supports the view that substantial bounce in GLD is near.  However, this cycle CB wave bounce will not make a new high above the cycle C5 top of 185.85 from Sept 2011.  It will likely only retrace about 50% to 150.

On the 60-min chart it can be seen that wave (3) of minor 5 of major [5]-PC-CA is complete or nearly complete at the target of 113.17, where (3)=1.62*(1).  There should be wave (4) of minor 5 bounce to about 116.05 or a 38% retrace below wave (5) of minor 5 completes at the (5)=(1) target of 111.04.  The is bullish falling wedge on both the 60-min and 4-hr charts to support this completion this major [5]-PC-CA wave.  Note that move above 117.41 will begin to confirm the bottom in place and move above the minor 4 high of 122.32 should fully confirm it.

GLD 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG GLD 60-min EOD 12-19-13

GLD 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG GLD 4-hr EOD 12-19-13

GLD weekly chart (EOD):

PUG GLD weekly EOD 12-19-13

GLD Long-Term Chart 1792-2013:

PUG Gold Historical Prices 1792 to 2013 12-19-13

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