December 12th, 2013: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on December 12, 2013
8:10 pm EST: Today the SP-500 reached a critical inflection point dipping slightly below the 1775 pivot to 1772. If the primary count is to continue to play-out, then the SP-500 price needs to hold the 1775 pivot range of 1768 to 1782 and put in a strong reversal higher very soon. The $NYMO SPX Buy step signal was confirmed at close and step 2 of the VIX Sell, SPX Buy was confirmed at the close. Also the SPX closed under the its lower BB today, setting up step 1 of the SPX Buy signal. So there are three SPX Buy signals in play at the close today.
The primary count is that wave (2) of minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 did not end at the first move to 1779, but rather that move was only wave a-(2). The move up to 1812 was wave b-(2) and now the move lower is wave c-(2). Today the wave (2) hit the 62% fib retrace of 1772, which is typical wave 2 retracement. Wave (2) and the primary count remain valid above the minor 2 low of 1746. Once wave (2) completes, wave (3) should target 1856, where (3)=1.23*(1) and the next fib target is at 1882, where (3)=1.62*(1). The minor 3 of major [5] target remains at 1905 and the major [5]-P3 target at 1941.
The alternate (blue) count is that P3-C1 topped at 1813 and a significant P4-C1 correction down towards the 1576 pivot is underway that will last several months. The first wave down is minor 1 of major [A]-P4 and is likely headed for 1746 or below. Wave (1) of minor 1 completed at 1779, wave (2) ended at 1812 and now wave (3) is headed for a target area of 1757, where (3)=1.62*(1). This alternate (blue) count remains valid as long as wav (2) of minor 1 remains below 1814.
A move above 1813 will confirm the primary count and kill the alternate (blue) count as labeled. If a move lower occurs before a move above 1813, then the critical level to watch for an intermediate term (IT) trend change is at 1746.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
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