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November 20th, 2013: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on November 20, 2013

11-12-13, 9:45 pm EST:  The SP-500 weekly chart with indicators is shown below.   Both the weekly RSI (14) and MACD are showing potential negative divergence with SP-500 price since the May 2013 high.  This type of weekly negative divergence should not be ignored, as it often leads to a major correction the SP-500.  The key level to watch is SP-500 1746, as outlined in my E-wave technical analysis below.  A move below 1746, will likely usher in a significant correct per the alternate (blue) wave count.

SP-500 weekly chart with indicators (11-19-13):

PUG SP-500 Weekly Chart with Indicators

5:25 pm EST:   The SP-500 primary count is that wave (1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 topped at 1802.   The current move lower is a wave (2) of minor 3 and must remain above 1746 in order to stay a valid primary wave count.  The typical 50%/62% fib retrace target for wave (2) is at 1774/1767.  Assuming wave (2) ends at 1774/1767, the wave (3) of minor 3 target is at minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 or 1864/1857.   Ultimately wave minor 3 should reach just above 1900 and major [5]-P3-C1 should reach 1941 to 1993 (see the 4-hr and daily charts).

The alternate (blue) count has minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 topped at 1802.  Meaning that a significant correction for P4-C1 is underway and likely headed for the typical wave 4, 38% fib retrace of P3 at a target of 1526.  This first move lower from 1802 is minor 1 of major [A]-P4-C1. The minor 1 target is 1746.  Wave (1) of minor 1 completed at 1785 and wave (2) was a 62% fib retrace to 1796.  Wave (3) down is underway with a target of 1751, where (3)=2.62*(1).  Ultimately, minor 1 of major [A] should target 1746.  This alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the 1802 level.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min Chart EOD 11-20-13

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 Hourly Chart EOD 11-20-13

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr Chart EOD 11-20-13

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily Chart EOD 11-20-13

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