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November 19th, 2013: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on November 19, 2013

4:45: pm EST:  Primary count is wave iii-(1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 ended at 1802 at the iii=1.62*i target.  Wave iv-(1) may have completed today at 1785 near the 38% fib retrace target of 1786.  The wave v=i target is at 1812 to complete wave (1) of minor 2.  However, if this move down from 1802 beaks below the wave i-(1) high of 1773 before above 1802, then the wave (1) of minor 3 top is in place at 1802 and wave (2) of minor 3 is underway that must hold the 1746 minor 2 low to keep the primary wave count valid.  In that scenario the typical minor 2 fib retrace target is at 62% or 1767.

The alternate (blue) count is that wave (3) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 ended at 1802 at the (3)=1.62*(1) target.  Wave (3) of minor 5 may have completed at 1785 near the 38% retrace target of 1786.  The wave (5)=(1) target is at 1812 to complete wave minor 5 of  major [5]-P3-C1.  However, a break below the wave (1) of minor 5 high at 1773 before a move above 1802 would confirm the end of P3-C1 at 1802 and usher in the significant P4-C1 38% fib retracement of P3-C1 down to the 1524/1560 pivot area over the next few months.   But it will take a move below 1746 for invalidation of the primary wave and confirmation of this alternate (blue) wave count.

Now is the time to watch the 1773 level for a potential short-term trend change and 1746 level for a potential intermediate-term trend change.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min Chart EOD 11-19-13

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 Hourly Chart EOD 11-19-13

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 Daily Chart EOD 11-19-13

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