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November 7th, 2013: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on November 7, 2013

6:15 pm EST:  Today’s move to 1774.54, failure of the SP-500 to break the previous high of 1775.22 and subsequent fall below 1752.70 confirmed the top made at 1775.22 on Oct 30th.  The double top pattern target is 1775 – (1775-1753) = 1731.

The primary count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C1 is playing out as a flat with a target at (c)=1.62*(a) = 1739.  The absolute minimum 23% retrace for minor 2 is a 1745, which was hit near the close today.  However, I suspect the double top target of 1731 will be tested and possibly the 38% retrace at 1726.   There is also pivot support at 1730.  Once minor 2 is complete, minor 3 will carry the SP-500 well above 1800 and towards 1900 to complete major [5]-P3-C1.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [5]-P3-C1 topped at 1775.22 on Oct 30th and therefore Primary 4 (P4)-C1 is underway headed for 1500 on the SP-500 for a 38% retrace of P3.  The first wave down minor 1 of major [A]-P4-C1 is underway.  Wave (3) of minor 1 is headed for 1716, where (3)=1.62*(1).  Ultimately minor 1 will reach at least the 1709 pivot before a bounce of minor 2.  This alternate (blue) count can not be fully confirmed until the 1646 level is breached.   However a move and close below the rising 50-day SMA currently at 1707 should be an early warning sign.  Note that on the flip-side it will now take a move above 1775 to invalidate the alternate (blue) count and confirm the primary.

The SP-500 is at a significant inflection point there in the 1730 to 1779 pivot area.   At the close today, the $NYMO is oversold now at -43 vs a lower BB of -41.   If the 1730 pivot support holds, then a big move higher should occur (primary count).  However if the $NYMO weakens further without a bounce, then a significant break-down in the SP-500 could follow (alternate count) similar to what we saw in July-August 2011 with the P2 correction from 1371 to 1075.  It’s time to be very cautious.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 11-7-13

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 11-7-13

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 11-7-13

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 11-7-13

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly chart EOD 11-7-13

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