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October 31st, 2013: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 31, 2013

4:45 pm EST:  The key 1779 pivot seems to have capped the move up on the SP-500 for now.  There are two waves counts I’m tracking with the separating levels being 1779 to the upside and 1646 to the down side.

The primary count is that the minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C1 correction is underway.  It looks like the drop from 1775 to 1756 is wave a-(w) of a minute (w)-(x)-(y) double Zig-Zag for minor 2.  The bounce to 1768 was a perfect 62% retrace for b-(w) and now wave c-(w) would be headed for the c=1.62*a target of 1737.  There will then be an (x) wave bounce and a (y) wave drop to the final minor 2 target of 1725/1711 for a 38%/50% retrace of minor 1.  Note that the minor 2 correction and primary count remains valid above the major [4] low of 1646.  From the minor 2 low, minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 will climb above 1900 going into  the spring of 2014.  The target for major [5]-P3-C1 is at 1941, where P3=1.23*P1 or 1993 where major [5]=[1].

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [5]-P3-C1 topped at 1775 just under the all important 1779 pivot, where P3=P1.  A primary degree wave 4 or P4 correction is underway that will correct about 38% of P3 or a target of 1509.  This first move lower is wave minor 1 of major [A]-P4-C1.  The drop to 1756 is wave minute (1) of minor 1 and the 62% retrace to 1768 was wave (2).  Wave (3) is now underway headed 1737, where (3)=1.62*(1).  Ultimately minor 1 should reach the 1730 to 1709 pivot area before a minor 2 bounce.  My initial target for major [A]-P4-C1 is near 1427.

Note that it will take a break below 1646 in order to confirm this alternate (blue) count and invalidate the primary count.  However, the alternate (blue) count gain momentum over the primary count on a move below the 1687 pivot.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 10-31-13

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 10-31-13

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 10-31-13

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