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October 29th, 2013: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 29, 2013

7:00 pm EST:  Today saw yet another new all-time high on the SP-500 at 1772.   The DJ-30 is just a few points (39 to be exact) from breaking above its all-time high of 15,709 and joining the SP-500.  Thus, I have tweaked the SP-500 primary wave count to show major [4]-P3-C1 as the same “running flat” that I correctly identified in real-time on the DJ-30 back on October 9th, which led to this rally to new all-time highs on the SP-500 above 1730.  The DJ-30 and SP-500 primary wave counts are now in sync (see weekly charts below).

The primary count is that minor 1 of major [5]-P3-C1 is nearly finished here at the 1780 or 1805 targets, where wave (5)=0.62*(1) or (5)=(1).   Assuming minor 1 finishes at the 1780 target, which corresponds to the 1779 pivot, then the minor 2 targets are a 38%/50% retrace to the 1730/1709 pivot area.  From there minor 3 of major [5]-P3-C1 should grind higher to a target above 1900 into the spring of 2014 to complete P3-C1 at the P3=1.23*P1 target of 1941 or at 1993 where major [5]=[1].   From there a significant P4 correction of a 38% retrace to 1612 will occur before P5-C1 completes above 2000 sometime in 2016.

The alternate (blue) count which was an ending diagonal has been eliminated.  Given major [4]-P3-C1 ending as running flat at 1646, this 5-wave move up from 1646 to 1772 can be counted as all of major [5]-P3-C1.  Currently minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 is nearly finished at the 1780 to 1805 targets, where M5=0.62*M1 or M5=M1.  This alternate (blue) implies that significant correction for P4-C1 is about to begin which will see the SP-500 retrace 38% of P3-C1 in P4-C1 down to the 1512 area by early 2014.  It will take a break below the 1646 level to confirm this alternate (blue) count, but a break of the 1687 pivot would be an early warning sign that the P3-C1 top is in place the P4-C1 has begun.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 10-29-13

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 10-29-13

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 10-29-13

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 10-29-13

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly chart EOD 10-29-13

DJ-30 daily chart (EOD):

PUG DJ-30 daily chart EOD 10-29-13

DJ-30 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG DJ-30 weekly chart EOD 10-29-13

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