October 9th, 2013: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on October 9, 2013
11:00 pm EST: The SP-500 does not count the same way as the DJ-30, but the conclusion is the same: P3-C1 is still underway headed higher than 1730 to at least P3=P1=1779.
The primary count for the SP-500 is that minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C1 is playing out as a running flat wave (c)=(a) at 1648. Thus, today’s 1646 low is the end of minor 2. The move up to 1662 today was wave i-(1) of minor 3 of major [5] and the drop to 1655 near the close was wave ii-(1). Now I’m looking for wave iii-(1) to be a move up to 1697, where iii=2.62*i The wave (1) target is the 1709 pivot. The minor 3 of major [5] should reach the 1795 area where minor 3 = 1.62* minor 1. Ultimately, major [5]-P3-C1 should reach to at least the P3=P1=1779 or to 1861, where [5]=0.62*[1].
The alternate (blue) count variant to the primary count is that wave iii-(c) of minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C1 ended today at 1646 and the a wave iv-(c) bounce to 1671 is underway. Wave v-(c) of minor 2 should reach at least the (c)=1.23(a) target of 1629 and maybe to the (c)=1.62(a) target of 1597. This alternate (blue) count remains valid as long as minor 2 of major [5] remains above the major [4] of 1560.
Note that a move below 1560, would indicate that P3-C1 topped at 1730 and P4 is underway headed for 1481 or 38% retrace of P3. This would be the alternate (red) count, not shown on the charts at this point.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD):
SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):
6:30 pm EST: I think it’s important tonight to start with a step back and look a the big picture wave count since the March 2009 low. It’s my opinion the DJ-30 tells a better story of the overall wave count and why Primary Wave 3 (P3) of Cycle 1 (C1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) is very likely still unfolding with a higher, high ahead in the next few months.
Below are the daily and weekly charts on the DJ-30. Notice that P3 is still well short of the P3=P1 target of 16,810 and for a typical impulse wave P3 is equal to or greater than P1 with typical Fibonacci relationships at P3=1.23*P1 and 1.62*P1. Also, notice that the light blue E-wave channel for P3 is still intact with today DJ-30 low of 14,719. Also notice that the waves since the May 2012 high of 15,542 count best as a 3-3-5 wave structure, which is a flat, where minor C=A at 14,719. DJ-30 14,719 was precisely today’s low before the bounce to 14,852. Therefore the wave count that has the “right look” on the DJ-30 daily and weekly charts is that major [3]-P3 ended in May a 15,542 and that since May the DJ-30 has been tracing out a 3-3-5 running flat for major [4]-P3, where C=A at 14,719. While the DJ-30 could still drop a little more than 14,719 and stay in the light blue channel to complete major [4], the C=A=14,719 relationship hit today is very strong set-up for a bottom. From here the next move for the DJ-30 should be a major [5]-P3 wave toward a target of at 16,810 where P3=P1 or has high as 18,282 where P3=1.23*P1. There is also a major [5]=[1] target in between at 17,612.
More on the SP-500 chart updates to follow later tonight.
DJ-30 daily chart (EOD):
DJ-30 weekly chart (EOD):
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