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October 1st, 2013: GLD Wave Count Update

Posted by pugsma on October 1, 2013

6:55 pm EST:   GLD broke below the 125.15 low today and thus chose the alternate (blue) wave count shown last week where major [2]-P5 is still unfolding.  This become the new primary count.   Major [2] must hold the 114.68 P4 low set late June 2013 to remain valid.  A typical wave 2 retrace target is at the 62% fib of 123.37.  GLD’s low today at 123.81, so its possible the major [2] low is in place or very close.  Looking at the count on the 60-min chart, I could see today’s low as wave iii-(c) of minor Y and there should thus one more push lower than 123.81 for wave v-(c) after a wave iv-(c) bounce.  There is also the Y=W target 121.44.

If GLD were to break the June 2013 low of 114.68, then we have the very bearish alternate (red) count shown on the weekly chart.   This alternate (red) count has GLD drop to 93 and possibly 66.

GLD 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG GLD 60-min chart EOD 10-1-13

GLD 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG GLD 4-hr chart EOD 10-1-13

GLD weekly chart (EOD):

PUG GLD weekly chart EOD 10-1-13

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