August 15th, 2013: EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on August 15, 2013
4:45 pm EST: Cycle 1 of Super-Cycle V may have topped at 1709. However, there are two higher probability wave counts that have P5-C1 reaching above 1800 toward the 1912 area into 2014. See update daily and weekly chart below for big picture. Detailed 15-min, 60-min and 4-hr charts to follow later this evening.
Note for all 3 wave counts the P3-C1 top has been moved back to the May 2013 SP-500 high of 1687.
The primary count is that P4 is playing out as a contracting triangle. Major [B]-P4-C1 topped at 1709 and this move down toward 1643 is minor A of major [C]-P4-C1. Wave (3) of minor A may have completed today at 1659 and there should be a (4) bounce to 1667/1673 that holds below the wave (1) low of 1683. From there wave (5) of minor a should target 1643, which is the measured move head and shoulders target off the 1709 high. After minor A completes, there should be a minor B wave bounce up to about 50% retrace of 1687, before [C]-P4 heads for the 1610-1620. P4 should continue to play out as a contracting triangle with major [D] up and [E] down over the next 4 to 6 weeks.
The alternate (blue) count is that P4 bottomed at 1560 back in June 2013 and the move up to 1709 was major [1]-P5-C3. The ongoing correction from 1709 is a major [2]-P5 wave that should end near 1643 or the 50% retrace of major [1] at 1635. The minute wave count for minor C of major [2] shows wave (3) maybe compete today at 1659 and there will be a wave (4) of minor C bounce to 1667/1773 before wave (5) of minor 3 head for 1643. From the major [2] low, major [3] should make a new high above 1709, with an initial target of 1792, where [3]=1.62*[1].
Ultimately both the primary and alternate (blue) wave counts are looking for a new P5-C1 high above 1709 at a 1913 target sometime before mid-2014.
The alternate (red) count is that P5-C1 topped 1709 and Cycle 2 (C2) down has already begun. Cycle 2 should head for a 50%/62% retrace of Cycle, which is the 1188 to 1063 area over the next year to year and half. This first wave down is major [1]-PA and should target the 1576 pivot area. It looks like today may have only completed wave (1) of minor 3 of major [1] and there will be wave (2) of minor 3 bounce to 1667/1673 before wave (3) of minor heads towards 1600.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):
SP-500 Weekly Chart (EOD):
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