August 7th, 2012: Mid-day/EOD
Posted by pugsma on August 7, 2013
12:15 pm EST: We have tentative top of both wave counts at 1709 with a full confirmation on break below 1676.
The primary count is that P3-C1 ended at 1709 and that P4-C1 correction is underway. The P4 primary wave is correcting the P3 primary wave from 1075 to 1709 and thus a significant move lower is underway. A typically P4 correction would be a 38% retrace of P3 down to 1468. I’m expecting P4 to be complex correction (i.e. triangle) in order to alternate with the P2 correction which was a simple and sharp Zig-Zag from 1371 to 1075. The first major [A] wave of the P4 triangle should be a sharp minor A-B-C drop from 1709 to 1468. The move down from 1709 to 1685 thus far is a 5-wave move for wave (1) of minor A of major [A]-P4-C1. This wave (1) should end here between 1685 and 1676 support and be followed by a wave (2) of minor A bounce of a 50% retrace to the 1697 area. I’m looking for wave (3) of minor A to break the 1676 support and ultimate minor A should reach the 1620 target area.
The alternate (blue) wave count remains bullish over the intermediate term (few more months) in that P3-C1 will extend higher to at least the P3=P1 target of 1779. In this alternate (blue) count 1709 is the end of minor 1 of major [5]-P3-C1 and this on going correction since 1709 is minor 2. The 5 wave move down from 1709 to 1685 thus far is wave (a) of minor 2. There should be a wave (b) of minor 2 retrace of 50% up to 1697 before wave (c) of minor 2 heads for the 1637 target for minor 2 at a 50% retrace of minor 1.
SP-500 15-min chart (mid-day):
SP-500 60-min chart (mid-day):
SP-500 4-hr chart (mid-day):
SP-500 daily chart (mid-day):
SP-500 weekly chart (mid-day):
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.