July 1st, 2013: Morning Update
Posted by pugsma on July 1, 2013
10:35 am EST: Primary count is looking great with the move up to 1626 so far this morning. Wave iii-(5) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 is underway. The target is at 1632, where iii=1.62*i. Ultimately it looks like wave (5) will reach the 1643 target, where (5)=1.62*(1). There is also a lower minor 1 target at 1627, where (5)=(1) if this minor 1 wave ends very soon. After minor 1 completes, there will be a minor 2 pull-back to the 1600 support area before minor 3 makes a new high above 1687. Note: there is potential IHS forming with head at 1560, neckline near 1654 and target of 1748, which would correspond to the minor 3 of major [5] target area. The final target for major [5]-P3-C1 is at 1775.
The alternate (blue) count is much less likely on the break above 1620 today. However, the alternate (blue) is still theoretically possible for a wave (b) completion below 1654. The next fib retrace target for (b) is at 1633 or a 78% retrace of wave (a). Assuming wave (b) does not break above 1654, then the alternate (blue) count is free to make a new below 1560 for wave (c) of minor Y of major [4]-P3-C1. From wave (b) high of 1633, the (c)=(a) target becomes 1539, which is near the wave 4 of lesser degree at 1536.
SP-500 15-min chart (morning):
SP-500 60-min chart (morning):
SP-500 4-hr chart (morning):
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